By OBINNA EZUGWU
On November 6, the Anambra electorate will head to the polls to chose a successor to the incumbent governor, Chief Willie Obiano, in what promises to be a battle of billionaires and corporate heavyweights.
At the last count, there are at least 30 contenders, with Nigeria’s main opposition party, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) leading the pack as it seeks to reclaim a state it lost to the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) in 2006, through a court judgment that brought to an end Dr. Chris Ngige’s troubled reign as governor, and ushered in Mr. Peter Obi, the rightful winner of the state’s 2003 governorship election.
But while the main opposition party has within its rank of aspirants, such notable individuals as Anambra Central Senator, Mrs. Uche Ekwunife; immediate past president and Chief Executive Officer of Transnational Corporation of Nigeria, Mr. Valentine Ozigbo; U.S. based billionaire medical doctor, Godwin Maduka; former Anambra South senator, Ugochukwu Uba, among others, the party could yet see its attempt end in defeat as the odds largely favour one of its ex chieftains, now a member of the state’s ruling party, Professor Chukwuma Soludo.
When in 2010, Soludo, riding on the back of his perceived strong performance as governor of Nigeria’s apex bank, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), sought to govern Anambra under the PDP platform, his aspiration ended in a heavy defeat in the hands of then incumbent Mr. Obi who was seeking a second term after a problematic, but nonetheless impressive first term performance. Not only did Soludo lose to Obi, but only managed third place behind the former governor and Dr. Ngige, then candidate of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN).
But there was more to the defeat than met the eye. It was down, perhaps, to two critical factors: first being the strong intervention of the late Biafra leader, Chief Emeka Ojukwu, who used his influence to appeal to the many big shots in the state who had become infuriated by Obi’s alleged frugality, and were determined to ensure his reign as governor ended after his first four years.
The second, and perhaps the more critical factor, was the indisposition and subsequent death of then president, Umaru Musa Ya’Adua, and the consequent elevation of Dr. Goodluck Jonathan to the position of acting president, and subsequently president.
There had been talks about Soludo replacing Jonathan as vice president in 2011, and Ya’Adua’s plan, it was said, had been to ensure that he became governor, so at to use the platform of governorship to gain more political clout. However, Ya’Adua’s illness and subsequent death put spanner in the works. Jonathan, upon becoming president, made sure not to allow a “rival” achieve political prominence. And not even pleas by Soludo and several efforts to prove his loyalty could change the mind of the determined Bayelsa born, then number one citizen.
Obi thus, cashed in on Jonathan’s alleged express instruction to security and other federal government agencies not to intervene in Soludo’s favour, to retain his seat, an outcome that cemented his friendship with Jonathan.
However, eleven years down the road, Soludo is back with expectation of a better outcome, and he has good reasons to be hopeful, as there are at least two key factors that could ensure that the 60-year-old professor of economics doesn’t end up as he did the last time out, should he emerge APGA candidate as widely expected.
One, obviously, is his close relationship with the incumbent Obiano. The other being his close rapport with the power that be in Abuja, and a certain suggestion that the ruling APC plans to use him to indirectly take over the state, as it hopes to consolidate its Southeast base ahead of 2023 general election.
“APC will support Soludo to win,” a party source who craved anonymity said. “Then towards 2023, he will join APC. He is likely to be vice presidential candidate. That is the idea. APC also wants more presence in the East and they know it will not be easy to win directly.”
Perhaps aware of this plot, many aspirants in the APC have been skeptical about obtaining the party’s ticket. As at the weekend, only three aspirants: Senator Andy Uba, Dr. George Moghalu and one other, were said to have so far purchased the party’s N22.5 million nomination forms.
Soludo had also endeared himself to Obiano by throwing his weight behind him during his second term bid in 2017. The former CBN governor had famously argued at the time that governance under Obiano was not broken, and therefore needed no mending. Obiano would go on to win in all 21 local governments of the state, thrashing his closest rival and candidate of the All Progressive Congress (APC), Mr. Tony Nwoye, as well as PDP’s Oseloka Obaze who came a distant third.
The former CBN governor, this time around, would be hoping to get the backing of Governor Obiano which could prove very key. Both men have remained political allies for more than half a decade, and in a move that appeared to suggest he was preparing him to take over, Obiano in November 2019 constituted a 48-man think-tank committee to envision an economic and social development of the state in the next 50 years and put him as chairman.
But of course, there are no permanent friends in politics. There have been speculations that Obiano may ultimately dump him for another aspirant. However, the information available to this reporter suggests that it’s unlikely, as the governor’s hands appear to be tied by APC’s plan, himself being a loyalist of President Muhammadu Buhari, and the likely possibility of APGA losing the state if it fields a weak candidate.
“For now, Soludo, Ifeanyi Ubah and Uche Ekwunife are the more popular contenders,” Mr. Chidi Nwafor, Onitsha based business owner and political enthusiast said. “If Obiano finally decides to support Soludo, that would give him an edge, but my feeling is that he might dump him for somebody he knows he can control, so that his tracks will be covered when leaves office.”
Nwafor noted, however, that given how unpopular Obiano has become, fielding a candidate that doesn’t have the pedigree of someone like the former CBN governor, could spell doom for APGA.
“If he just brings anybody, APGA will likely lose. APGA is no longer that popular because of him. He has not done much for Ndi Anambra. The only thing he talks about is Anambra airport.”
Obiano’s support could very well ensure that Soludo clinches the APGA ticket and the governorship seat ahead of other equally formidable candidates in what will be a contest of Anambra South Senatorial District or the old Aguata zone, whose turn, by the state’s unwritten rotation principle, it is to produce the next governor.
The return of Democracy in 1999, saw the emergence of Chinweoke Mbadinuju, from the South Senatorial District as governor. He would, however, lose the PDP ticket amid rifts with his then godfather, Emeka Offor, to Chris Ngige, who subsequently became governor in 2003 under the PDP platform. Ngige, from the Central Senatorial Zone, would eventually be replaced by Mr. Obi, also from the zone. Obi went on to complete eight years before handing over to Obiano who is from Anambra North. With Obiano due to leave office after eight years, the expectation is that the seat will naturally return to Anambra South.
Indeed practically all the notable contenders this time are individuals from the South senatorial zone. Ekwunife, who presently represents the Central Zone being the only slight exception. However, she is also originally from the zone by birth, but belongs the Central Zone by marriage. And while Soludo stands out as a clear favourite, other notable persons like Capital Oil CEO, Senator Ubah; his predecessor, Andy Uba; Ekwunife; Ozigbo; Dr. Maduka, among others are campaigning for the job.
Out of the many, however, Senator Ubah, though being in a less prominent political party, the Young Progressive Party (YPP), observers note, is the only real challenger.
“Ifeanyi Ubah is the only candidate that may turn it into a bit of a challenge. Otherwise, I would say that Soludo stands a clear chance of winning,” said Mr. Collins Okeke, political analyst and head, public sector practice group, Olisa Agbakoba Legal.
“Ubah has been able to demonstrate that even in an unpopular political party, he can still win an election. He won on the YPP platform to become a senator. So, you can’t take him for granted. And from what I hear, the people from Nnewi side are determined to make sure that they produce the next governor. And I understand that a lot of the prominent people there support him.”
To be sure, when few days ago, Ubah held a rally at his home town of Nnewi, Anambra’s second largest commercial hub, after Onitsha, there was fanfare. Thousands abandoned their businesses to welcome and cheer on one of their illustrious sons attempting to achieve what non has achieved before.
While, noted earlier, the November poll will be a battle of Anambra South, the Nnewi bloc has a peculiar agitation for power, and Senator Ubah, embodies that aspiration.
Easily one of the most prominent towns in Anambra; a town noted for enterprise and its consequent production of several billionaires, perhaps the most of any town anywhere in Africa, Nnewi has not managed to replicate its success at business in politics, as it has yet to produce a governor of Anambra, despite several attempts in the past.
The inability may well be down to time and chance. But the reason often adduced is that the Nnewi bigwigs often undermine one another, yet the people themselves see it in terms of other groups ganging up against them fearing that a town with such economic power could not be allowed to equally take political power; all of which, exist in the realm of political gossip.
However, as the state prepares to elect another governor in November, the people of Nnewi appear to have resolved to change their story and are rallying behind their son, Senator Ubah, who is certain to fly the YPP flag, the party under whose platform he was elected senator, almost against the run of play, in 2019.
Ubah had relied largely on the backing on his Nnewi constituency to emerge senator under the relatively unknown YPP, which coincidentally had Kingsley Moghalu, another Nnewi son, as presidential candidate, defying the odds on the occasion to beat both trio of the APC, APGA and the PDP. And going into the November polls, his people are once again upbeat, hoping to replicate the success of 2019.
“Ubah will give Anambra State what it has been yearning for all these years,” said Mr. Chris Ifesi, Southeast chairman of YPP. “You could see that he is a grassroots man. From the locals, you will be able to know the strength of a politician.”
In many ways, Ubah’s emergence as senator was a protest against Obiano, whose decision to deny him the APGA ticket, was largely interpreted as a betrayal of the Nnewi people.
Ubah, among other prominent sons of Nnewi, had supported Obiano and campaigned for him when he sought a second term of office in 2017, with the possible understanding that he would be supported by the governor in 2021. However, both men fell apart when the Obiano led APGA, in the lead up to the 2019 election, denied him the party’s Anambra South senatorial ticket.
Ubah understandably sought the APGA senatorial ticket, hoping to use the senate as springboard to launch his governorship bid. But Obiano apparently chose to make his intention of not wanting him near the Awka government house known early enough by ensuring that he never took the party’s senatorial ticket. Ubah would join the YPP and through the platform, actualised his senatorial ambition.
Supported by those who saw Obiano’s move as betrayal, and particularly, people of his Nnewi constituency to whom the governor’s action was yet another ploy to keep them out of power, Ubah defeated candidates of the PDP, APGA and APC to emerge winner of the zone’s senatorial election. But his victory meant that an open war was now declared between him and the governor who is evidently determined to stop him from becoming governor.
But Ubah has enough political muscle to give any opponent a headache. His emergence as senator under a relatively unknown political platform, was perhaps a good demonstration of his grassroots support base, and going into the polls, he has reasons to be hopeful.
“You can see the crowd here,” he told reporters when he took his campaign to Aguleri last week. “As you know, Aguleri is the home town of the current governor. That shows you how people love this party. YPP has come to stay. By the grace of God, YPP will win this election on November 6th.”
Ubah s, without a doubt, a political heavyweight in the state, and has the support of his constituency. And although he is running on a relatively unknown platform, Obi who became governor under APGA in 2006, after reclaiming his 2003 mandate in court, at a time when the PDP was dominant, is enough prove that a “small” party can cause an upset. However, what is also clear is that Ubah would need broader support base to go far, as only Nnewi votes won’t be enough.
